This data visualisation examines the impact of scoring first, tracking the 96 matches played ahead of the 2026 summer recess to isolate how teams fared after breaking the deadlock.
More often than not, it defines the outcome of a match.
As Rob Eastway and John Haigh highlighted in The Hidden Mathematics of Sport, the team that scores first wins about two-thirds of the time, while there is only a one-in-seven chance that a side loses after netting the opening goal.
Trends in Ireland mirror this global reality.
As the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division campaign pauses for a two-week summer break (matches resume on Friday, June 12), only Waterford FC, the team bottom of the table, have failed to win after breaking the deadlock.
FIVE2FOLLOW
Keane on O’Neill or not
MLS crossing for Ferry
Fulham calling
Turkish delight for Sinclair
St Pat’s WC adventurer
Conversely, defending champions Shamrock Rovers – winners of five of the last six titles – lead the way with 10 victories from 12 the matches where they claimed the opener.
Explanation of plot
The data charts each team’s performance along a chronological match sequence (x-axis) against the exact minute the opening goal was scored (y-axis).
Situations where the team that scores first wins are represented by a green dot; an orange dot denotes when the side that claims the opening goal is subsequently held to a draw; a red dot signifies a fixture that ended in defeat.
Leaders
Title holders Shamrock Rovers’ grid is festooned with green – 10 wins from 12.
Laggards
Teams prone to dropping points show clusters of orange and red markers, revealing an inability to see out games even after scoring first. Waterford are the worst offenders in this regard: no wins from five.
No noise, just the news & views that matters. The Sports Hacks is a reader supported publication - if you like what you read, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber and sharing our work.
Larry Mahony chats with Cathal Dervan about a coach’s view of the Champions League final and other issues from the week. Larry is one of Ireland’s leading football coaches and has worked with some of the country’s top emerging talent with Shamrock Rovers and the FAI amongst others.
Robbie Keane and Martin O’Neill or Robbie Keane versus Martin O’Neill? That appears to be the question according to multiple media reports as Celtic fans await the appointment of a new manager.
The Irish Independent is one of the outlets covering the story and reports that Celtic owner Dermot Desmond has already held talks with Keane as he narrows the managerial search down to two candidates.
The paper also reports that O’Neill could move upstairs to a Director of Football role if Keane arrives, a reward for guiding the Celts to an unexpected League and Cup double in his two spells as interim boss last season.
But the paper also says that Keane’s connections with Israel from his time as manager at Maccabi Tel Aviv have caused issues with sections of the Celtic fan base.
Ireland international Will Ferry could be on his way to the MLS with Los Angeles FC amid interest from Europe as well - but former Under 21 midfielder Connor Ronan looks set to move back across the Atlantic and join Aberdeen from the Colorado Rapids.
The Irish Independent reports that an unnamed club on the continent are believed to have had a €1.2million bid turned down for Ferry, capped in the 5-0 win against Grenada last month.
The paper also reports that Ronan could quit the MLS after a couple of seasons with the Rapids and move to Aberdeen.
Newly promoted Ipswich Town could lose their Irish manager Kieran McKenna to Fulham after Marco Silva’s decision to move home to Portugal and take up the role as Jose Mourinho’s replacement at Benfica.
Fulham announced Silva’s departure on Tuesday as his contract expired after five years at Craven Cottage and the Belfast Telegraph reports that McKenna is the bookies’ favourite to succeed him.
Sinclair Armstrong is in Izmir to complete a medical ahead of a €2.5million move to Turkish side Goztepe from Bristol City according to a report by John Fallon in the Irish Examiner.
Capped by Stephen Kenny against Holland in 2024, the former QPR striker looks set to follow fellow international Festy Ebosele to Turkey after he moved Basaksehir FK last season.
Goalkeeper Joseph Anang will make history as the first St Patrick’s Athletic player to go to the World Cup finals whilst playing with the Inchicore side.
RTE Sport reports that Ghana boss Carlos Queiroz included Anang in his 26 man squad for the finals, announced on Tuesday. Ghana face England at the finals.
All photos on TheSportsHacks are provided by Sportsfile.com
Have you got something to share? Want to get involved? We’re always ready to hear a different view and we’re always on the look out for new contributors - young and old, experienced writers or fresh minds.
Simply reply to this email with your details and we’ll be in touch.
